Does the Kerry or Gore Democrat exist?

Joseph Britt, who guest-blogged for Daniel Drezner last week signed off with a really thought provoking column on the Democratic party:

I want to close with a question that has been percolating between my ears for a while now. People who followed politics in 30 and 40 years ago could have identified such a thing as a "Humphrey Democrat," a "Jackson Democrat," even a "McGovern Democrat." None of these men ever got elected President -- only Humphrey came close -- but all of them had substantial accomplishments in their political careers, accomplishments that could not have been theirs if positioning themselves for a run at the White House had absorbed their whole attention.

What is a Kerry Democrat? For that matter, what is a Gore Democrat, or an Edwards Democrat? Immediate family members of the gentlemen in question surely count, as must a number of their paid staff and -- technically -- Democrats who by coincidence share the last name of Kerry, Gore or Edwards. But that's about it.

There may not be any political implications flowing from this. It may just be that Presidential politics has changed; the people who get nominated for President now are those who establish a foothold through their relation to someone else, their election to a safe seat in the Senate, or their campaigning skills, and then wait around for their moment to strike. It just occurs to me when reading thought pieces about what position Democrats should take on Iraq, or health care, or taxes that parties don't adopt positions on important issues until people do. Whether ideas go anywhere depends on whether their advocates are smart and capable, not on whether their party's strategic direction is right where it should be. There is no shortage of chiefs in the Democratic Party, or Indians either. I just don't see any leaders.

I think that this is a really interesting position on a topic I have discussed before. In May I said:

I am truly starting to think that George Bush is a lot more than just a tiny cap on a pyramid. He is an extraordinary political figure who has been able to seem like a common man while having a WASP upbringing and the business connections necessary to win the business section of the Republican Party. Simultaneously, as a born-again Christian he is able to win over and more importunately, mobilize the social conservatives in a way that Reagan could not even do. For all that Democrats deride him for his seeming lack of intelligence and charisma; he is a man who has been able to unite the very distinct elements of the Republican Party.

Now according to Bradley's thesis, this should be an easy job, one that anyone could do. But I highly doubt that and I think we will see why in 3 years. Mostly because of the way that Bill Frist has manufactured a lot of his socially conservative views and how easily it will be for Democrats to crucify him on his litany of terrible choices (worst of all, according to The Economist, in his 1989 book Transplant, “He even recommended changing the legal definition of “brain death” to make it easier to harvest the organs of anencephalic babies (who are born with a fatal neurological disorder but show signs of mental activity).” Can someone say hypocrite). Because there does not seem to be anyone (as I know of yet) who has the transcendent charisma that Bush has, certainly Bill Frist does not have it, someone who rivals Al Gore in his ability to connect with the people.

In fact the Al Gore analogy with Bill Frist is a particularly fruitful one, I think I will hit more on that in a later post. But regardless of that point, I think that Bradley is giving the Republicans far too much credit for their success when he paints it as this well oiled machine, when in fact, much of the Republican success has been built around personalities who have had a much broader appeal then their individual ideologies. The list includes those like Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich, and of course Dubya. Also, this would explain why Reagan and Dubya have had such success while Bush Sr. floundered despite almost everything going for him.

I think that this is still true today. But Mr. Britt alludes to a point that I did not stress enough. George Bush and Reagan were more than great personalities. They were dynamic men whose personalities could capture the spirit of their ideas and policies.

Clinton had the personality and charisma that could have given birth to the Clinton Democrat. The Democrats could have achieved what the Labour Party in Britain has: dominionation over both its constituency and its opposition through third-way politics (Radical Centrism!). But any such movement was lost because of Clinton's extracurricular activities and the subsequent nomination of lamewad Al Gore (this may explain the nomination of Dick Cheney in 2004, it gives the Republican party flexibility in their candidate for 2008, something Democrats never had in 2000).

With that done, Republicans ascended to power and have been able to repeatedly target old mainstays of the Democratic party, forcing Democrats to do nothing but defend their old and often flawed ideas. Meanwhile the Democratic party is looking so fractured that any new idea is bound to offend one of the tenuously held constituencies. But unfortunately the fractures are such that the party is still capable of garnering 48% of the countries vote with stiffwad John Kerry. This has caused a chilling effect, where open debate has been stifled out of fear of alienating any one constituency. Simultaneously silence is encouraged by the hope of being able to randomly get that extra 1-2% next year needed to take the White House.

But Democrats should not fear. All it really takes is one candidate or event to unite a party. Republicans have got where they are because of pregnant chads and 9/11. We'll see how it all plays out, but if someone as crazy as Howard Dean can gain the following he has, then it may take as little as a Hillary Clinton to reinvent the Democrats in 2008.

And hell, if that does not work out, Democrats always have superstar in training Barack Obama.

-Mr. Alec