Implications of Rehnquist's Death

Very sad news today, Chief Justice William Rehnquist has passed away. He served on the court for 33 years. His legacy is immense and not just limited to his rulings (he brought a level of discipline and structure that the court lacked). For an excellent summary of his accomplishments this Atlantic article discusses his pragmatic approach to his rulings that endeared him to so many on both sides of the aisle.

The implications of Rehnquist's death are pretty significant. This really allows Bush to select the conservative that many on the far-right wanted. He can provide a package of two justices. One, in Roberts is the moderate compromise, and the second is his special pick for the religious right, the constituency that got him in the White House.

My initial thoughts are as follows:

1. Expect a more conservative nominee. The first name that pops into my head is Michael Luttig (who is known as mini Scalia, he is profiled here). Another name is Michael McConnell, a religious conservative (he ingenuiously represented evangelical groups looking to legalize public displays of religion, David Brooks profiled him in July) but also a well respected legal scholar.

2. Who becomes Chief Justice: If Bush chooses another Roberts (maybe Gonzales) then this becomes a no-brainer; Scalia. But if Bush goes the conservative route and nominates Luttig, expect more of a compromise on the Chief Justice. Although it does not give much real power to the conservative jurists, nominating Scalia does symbolize what many on the religious-right want to see.

3. The Supreme Court Nomination Blog will again become a second homepage for me and many others. Keep tabs on it.

4. It will be interesting to see how accurate Intrade is this time around. For the most part it missed the boat on Roberts. It has still been accurate in past instances (here and here) so keep your eyes on it.

5. This is the distraction that Bush needs from his dismal handling of the Hurricane Katrina crisis. It will be interesting to see how much attention Katrina still gets.

6. The significance of this Economist article reemerges. Here is a taste for nonsubscribers:

Mr Bush is surrounded by fellow jocks. Donald Rumsfeld is a former Navy wrestling champion who, at 73, makes a habit of walking five miles a day through the Pentagon corridors. He also likes to challenge underlings to squash. Condoleezza Rice is a former competition-level ice-skater who rises at dawn to run on her treadmill. Margaret Spellings, the education secretary, is a weight-lifter. Even Alberto Gonzales, the diminutive attorney-general, is keen on golf and racquetball.

...And a poor physique can test the president's patience. When Mr Bush sacked Larry Lindsey, his portly economic adviser during his first term, he apparently complained in private about his failure to exercise.

Mr Bush's obsession was on full display during the search for a new Supreme Court justice. He apparently asked one candidate, Harvie Wilkinson, two tough questions: What is the most difficult decision you have ever made? And how much do you exercise? The 60-year-old Mr Wilkinson said he ran three and a half miles a day. But the president urged him to do more cross-training. “He warned me of impending doom,” Mr Wilkinson told the New York Times. In introducing the successful candidate, John Roberts, to the country Mr Bush highlighted the fact that he had been captain of his high-school football team—as if this made up for the fact that he was a swot at Harvard Law School.

An interesting look into how Bush decided on who he will nominate. This of course bodes poorly for Michael McConnell. Regardless we will see how this all plays out. Hope this catches everyone up.

-Mr. Alec