Hamas

Hamas has out performed nearly everyone's predictions.

Here are a couple of notes:

1. Israel has to be wondering whether it was their pullout from Gaza that caused this. A New Republic article last week alluded to how, "Palestinians credit Hamas for its militancy and for getting the Israelis out of Gaza." It will be interesting to see how the Hamas victory will effect Ehud Olmert's upcoming decision on whether to begin a unilateral pull out of the West Bank or not.

2. While my first note seems to imply that Palestinian votes for Hamas are votes for terrorism, many have gotten the feeling that while their actions in Gaza put them on the map; it has been their honesty with money and their well reputed social services that caused them to get the vote. Also, the above mentioned New Republic article talked about how many in the West Bank are worried more about the state of the West Bank and Gaza Strip than they are about their defunct government’s purported relations with Israel. Negotiations that have led to any sort of beneficial change for Palestinians were not happening under Fatah, so the feeling may well have been, why keep them in power when they are so corrupt.

3. Over at OxBlog, Patrick Belton, who is now in the Palestinian authority has remarked that this is probably the worst thing for Hamas:

It's not clear anyone wanted this, least of all Hamas, who in assuming the administration of the Palestinian national authority's creaking and often corrupt bureaucracy single-handed in a moment when its sole lifeline of European and other international support appears threatened, may just have stumbled into the biggest molasses patch the Harakat al-Muqawamah al-Islamiyyah has ever faced. Unlike the Lib Dems of 1985, Hamas did not go to its constituencies to prepare for government. It had prepared for a coalition, or possibly pristine opposition, but not this.

This strikes me as the best spin that could be put on this, it even seemed to be the track that President Bush took in his speech this morning that was clearly prepared for this moment.

4. I think we could end up seeing a couple of scenarios. Hamas could quickly morph into a peaceful political party, much like the PLO morphed into Fatah. Hamas could also fail miserably in power like OxBlog is pointing to as a possibility. Also, Hamas could choose not to renounce its terrorism and simultaneously rule very effectively. The basic conclusion is that no one is sure what is going to happen, but that something big has definitely happened. We'll have to wait and see how it all turns out.

-Mr. Alec